![]() Jaylen Brown had four or more turnovers in four of those seven Heat games last summer. He averaged 4.7 turnovers per game, and he had games this year with five and seven turnovers against the Heat. That’s a bad mark and it was a win for the Heat. Last postseason against the Heat, the Celtics turned it over 14.0% of their possessions, with 14.6 turnovers a game. Miami’s offense needs those turnovers to generate scoring looks it can’t create in the half court. But the Heat rank second in turnover rate at 14.5%, turning opponents over about once every seven possessions. The Celtics rank in the top quarter of the league in fewest turnovers. The turnover battle will be key in this series.īoston doesn’t turn the ball over much typically. Game 7 Fatigue Could Lead to Celtics Turnovers Bet: Heat +8.5 ( BetRivers) | Heat ML (+300, DraftKings) The Heat have value against a tired Celtics team coming off a Game 7, and the Heat have value because 8.5 is too many points and +300 is far too long on the moneyline. This is about betting the spot and it’s about betting the number. I like Miami, and I’ll take them to cover and play the moneyline too. Still, that trend is awfully strong and should be ignored at your own peril. Boston also got to take its foot off the gas pedal in the final minutes of Game 7. Most teams coming off a Game 7 win aren’t great - hence why they were playing in a Game 7 - and a lot of them are on the road. Those are very ugly numbers, and they show just how hard it can be to immediately get up for a new opponent on short rest and low preparation after a grueling seven-game series. ![]() Those teams are also 36-49 in the series, a 42.4% success rate. Since 1988, teams coming off a Game 7 win are 33-52 SU in the following Game 1, an ugly 36.5% win rate including 0-1 this year. Raheem Palmer wrote for Action Network on the attrition impact of Game 7 on teams in the following series. This is historically a great spot to back Miami as the opponent of a team coming off a Game 7 win.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |